Shift 6: The Exit Landscape Is Maturing
For the first three years of the NatSec100, the report tracked companies ascending. This year, we want to elevate that the graduation story is as important as the ranking itself. Approximately 20 companies have exited the NatSec100 since its inception in 2023 through acquisition, public offering, or merger. SpaceX has confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC, targeting what would be the largest IPO in history. Venture capital exits from defense tech hit a record $54.4 billion in 2025, up from $18.2 billion in 2024.
Recent Exits
The exit data is the clearest signal yet that defense tech has become a durable asset class, not a geopolitical moment. Total VC exits in the sector nearly tripled in a single year. The primary driver was acquisition: large technology companies and institutional buyers moving to capture proven capabilities rather than build from scratch. The most consequential single transaction was Nvidia's $20 billion acquisition of Groq in December 2025, a company that appeared at #8 on the 2025 NatSec100, purpose-built for AI inference workloads with direct defense and intelligence applications. The deal, structured as a non-exclusive licensing agreement with an acquisition of senior leadership, represented Nvidia's largest transaction in its history and validated, at scale, the thesis that dual-use AI hardware companies can produce venture-scale returns.
Beyond Groq, the exit landscape diversified. IonQ acquired Capella Space in July 2025, combining quantum computing capabilities with synthetic aperture radar. Firefly Aerospace, Karman Holdings, and Voyager Space all went public in 2025, opening the public market conversation for defense tech even as their post-IPO performance varied. Eleven new defense tech unicorns were minted in 2025 alone (among them Forterra, Chaos, Castelion, and Apex) suggesting the pipeline feeding the next exit cycle is deeper than at any prior point.
SpaceX Graduation
No exit story in the 2026 NatSec100 carries more symbolic weight than SpaceX. The company appeared on each of the first three editions of this report and was isolated from comparative analysis given its scale, but included because it met every eligibility criterion. In April 2026, SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC, targeting a mid-to-late 2026 listing that would raise significantly more than $30 billion and potentially value the company at $1.5 trillion or above, which would be the largest public offering in history. That trajectory, from venture-backed startup to the most consequential defense and space company in the world, now on the cusp of the largest IPO ever, is the fullest expression of what the defense innovation ecosystem was designed to produce.
What the Exit Cycle Reveals
Exits tell you things about an ecosystem that the rankings cannot. They reveal whether investors are getting paid, a prerequisite for continued capital formation. They reveal whether large buyers see strategic value in what the ecosystem builds, a validation of the commercial and defense thesis simultaneously. And they reveal whether the asset class is stable enough to attract the institutional capital that patient, capital-intensive defense technology ultimately requires. The IPO performance of Firefly which traded below their listing price is a reminder that public market discipline is real, and that not every company that exits will exit well.
SVDG's Read
The exit data is good news for both investors and ecosystem writ large. Liquidity events return capital to funds, which redeploys into the next generation of companies. Premium acquisitions validate the dual-use thesis for institutional investors who have been watching from the sidelines.
Indicators to Watch
SpaceX completing its public offering successfully, demonstrating that defense-adjacent companies can access public markets at scale and sustain post-IPO performance
Additional NatSec100 companies filing for IPO in 2026 — analysts project at least three — validating that SpaceX is not an anomaly but the leading edge of a broader public market opening
Acquisition premiums remaining strong enough to continue attracting early-stage capital into the ecosystem — the returns on 2018-2022 vintage defense tech funds will determine whether 2026-2028 vintage funds form at the same pace
Post-IPO trading performance stabilizing — Firefly and Voyager's declines below IPO price are a caution signal that public market investors are applying real scrutiny, which is healthy, but premature liquidity crises could dampen the IPO pipeline
The graduate list growing — and the companies that replace them on the NatSec100 being younger, more technically ambitious, and more diverse across critical technology areas than the cohorts they succeed
“For years, investors viewed the defense market as parochial and niche, but that perception has undeniably changed. The military is adopting more commercially-oriented business practices in order to keep up with the rapid evolution of technology. This balances innovation between the industrial base and the government to better incorporate leading-edge capabilities, at speed, into the battlespace. Because of this, there has been a significant acceleration of capital inflows in support of the national security sector, particularly in critical areas such as AI, advanced manufacturing, autonomy, emerging space technologies, and energy infrastructure.
As the defensetech ecosystem matures, the conversation is shifting from whether these companies can innovate to whether they can scale into enduring, category-defining businesses. That transition requires access to deeper and more sophisticated pools of capital across the full company lifecycle, including growth equity, structured financing, M&A, and ultimately the public markets.
Investors are beginning to recognize the durability of the defensetech sector. The modernization requirements of national security are significant and on-going. More importantly, investors are recognizing the importance of supporting the long-term strategic advantage of the United States and its allies. We are early in the maturity of defensetech — this is just the beginning.”
